• EUR: Weakness overdone


    After meaningful gains yesterday, we expect the dollar rally to pause today and emerging market FX to get some breathing space given the mix of (a) a tentative agreement among Congressional negotiators to avoid another US government shutdown (with President Trump obtaining funding for the border wall, albeit lower than expected: $1.375 billion vs $5.7 billion); (b) signs that the US-China trade dispute may be resolved without a further imposition of tariffs (following White House adviser Kellyann Conways comments that President Trump wants to meet President Xi very soon). All this suggests some respite for EM FX ... (full story)